Climate Cha(lle)nges in global wine production and trade patterns
From Firenze University Press Journal: Wine Economics and Policy
Emilia Lamonaca, Department of Sciences of Agriculture, Food Natural resources and Engineering, University of Foggia
Antonio Seccia, Department of Sciences of Agriculture, Food Natural resources and Engineering, University of Foggia
Fabio Gaetano Santeramo, Department of Sciences of Agriculture, Food Natural resources and Engineering, University of Foggia
The rapid and dynamic evolution in the global trade of wine, document-ed by Mariani et al. more than ten years ago, has been observed also in the last decade with relevant changes in the relative importance of groups of countries. According to the data from the UN Comtrade, wine imports grew in the period between 1996 and 2008, due to increased consumption in non-producing countries, and recovered in 2011 after a reduction in 2009, due to the international economic crisis. In particular, trade between Old World Producers has drastically reduced in favour of a relevant increase in imports from New World Producers, which have gained growing market shares. Changes in trade patterns are likely to be affected both by different types of policy interventions and new productive scenarios due to climate change. Policy interventions are numerous and growing in the wine sector . The average tariff level fluctuated widely over twenty years and non-tariff measures increased exponentially after 2009 to prevent adulterations and frauds. New World Producers tend to implement bilateral measures and Old World Producers in general adopt multilateral measures and tariffs. The use of different types of policy interventions across countries may reflect differ-ent adaptation strategies to new productive scenarios due to climate change. Over recent decades, Old World Producers benefited of better growing season tem-peratures and New World Producers observed climatic regimes more favourable to the production of wine4 [14 , 15]. In this regard, tariffs and multilateral measures may allow Old World Producers to protect domestic production from foreign competition. Vice-versa, bilateral measures may favour market access and strength bilat-eral partnerships of New World Producers to allocate their growing production. The opening of new regions (benefiting of better climatic regimes) to viticulture and changes in policy interventions would determine new productive scenarios and trade dynamics.Although previous studies reveal that climate change is likely to affect trade (e.g., [17,18]) with substantial differences across producing regions of wine (e.g., [14,19]), it seems that the impact of climate change on wine production and trade patterns has not been investigated, nor quantified at global scale. In addition, while the equivalency of tariffs and non-tariff measures has been quantified (e.g., [7]), and the role of specific technical measures has been assessed in previous studies (e.g., [10, 20]), a few studies deepen on the role of environment-related policy interventions and trade dynamics under climate change. The limited empirical literature calls for more investigation: are varying climatic condi-tions able to shape wine production and trade? Which is the role of environment-related policy interventions in shaping trade patterns? By addressing these research questions, we would understand how climate change and related policy interventions could affect global produc-tion and trade of wine.The aim of the article is two-fold. A preliminary objective is to conceptualise and empirically test how climate change could affect global production and trade of wine. Second, through a gravity-type approach (e.g., [21,22]), the article explains how bilateral trade reacts to changes in specific determinants of trade (i.e., climatic conditions, policy interventions), net to the effect of country-specific characteristics of importers and exporters.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.36253/wep-13852
Read Full Text: https://oaj.fupress.net/index.php/wep/article/view/13852
